New Build

In a surprise announcement last November Vietnam said it wanted to build at least two and maybe as many as eight nuclear power stations (they have none presently) by 2025. This could be seen as a monumental leap in Vietnam’s confidence in nuclear as an energy source given that building just a single plant has been in debate over the past decade.

By Paul French

Construction plans jump from one to eight plants

Last year, a government paper, the first of its kind, circulated in the country – Towards a Project on Construction of the First Nuclear Power Plant in Vietnam. Despite this, most industry insiders were surprised by the announcement from Hanoi by the country’s National Assembly, Vietnam’s the highest lawmaking body, approving a project to build potentially eight nuclear reactors by 2025.

This was significantly more than expected.If all eight are built then Vietnam will acquire a total nuclear capacity of 16,000MW, catapulting the South East Asian country into the leading fifteen nuclear power countries.

The report recommending the construction of the plants submitted to the National Assembly estimated that building the first two reactors (using innovated light-weight water blowers), each with a capacity of 2,000MW, by 2022 would cost 200 trillion Vietnamese dong (US$11.3bn).

However, Vietnam cannot build these reactors themselves.

The country lacks sufficient electricity to keep pace with the growth of its economy and domestic demand from consumers (relying on coal fired stations largely at present) – electricity demand has been growing at a rate of 15% per annum for the last five years and is expected to grow at 16%+ a year through to 2015.

Yet, Vietnam also lacks the required advanced technology.

Speaking to the Vietnamese press in Hanoi after the announcement, Professor Pham Duy Hien, one of the country’s leading nuclear experts and an adviser to the Vietnam Agency for Radiation and Nuclear Safety, said he believed that the government was willing to spend the US$11.3bn if it helped ensure the country’s future energy needs and growth.

Domestic gap for talent and parts

Professor Pham also confirmed that Vietnam itself would not be making any parts for the reactors, but instead would buy them from foreign countries and hire foreign specialists to undertake the reactor’s assembly.

There are a few legislative hurdles to clear before construction of the reactors can begin. The National Assembly needs to pass a nuclear law and national standards on nuclear quality and technological regulations on safety need to be drawn up.

However, as a one-party state, this is just a matter of rubber stamping rather than being a subject of long, drawn out debate.

Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung has already declared his support for the programme.

It is usually the case in Vietnam that if the National Assembly, entirely controlled by the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam, makes an announcement then the decision to go ahead has already been taken internally.

Foreign observers have raised some issues about the viability of the project.

The US$11bn price tag for the initial reactors is a hefty one for Vietnam, currently growing economically, but adversely affected by a devalued currency and rising debt repayments.

Viability of plans in doubt

Additionally, the suitability of nuclear reactors to Vietnam has been raised – the country, which is narrow but long and hugs the coastline, is prone to adverse weather conditions, including flooding, typhoons and also lies close to several geologic fault lines.

While there has been no definitive announcement on the location for the reactors, the south central coastal province of Ninh Thuan has been suggested by Vuong Huu Tan, the director of the Vietnam Nuclear Energy Institute.

 In the past high population densities, fears over corruption and graft, adverse weather conditions and insufficient regulatory capacity to monitor sites and ensure their safety have scuppered plans for reactors in other South East Asian nations including Indonesia and Thailand.

The Philippines did build a US$2 billion, 620MW nuclear power plant in 1984 in Bataan province, north of Manila (and in a seismically active area), but has never used it – the project remains mired in accusation of corruption and political sleeze.

Rodolfo Severino, a researcher at the Institute of South East Asian Studies, based in Singapore, has argued that regional leaders should consider whether to establish a South East Asia-wide treaty to govern nuclear power projects in the region, plan for the disposal of nuclear waste and prepare for potential emergencies.

The natural body for this discussion would be the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), of which Vietnam is a member.

Construction of the first nuclear reactor is expected to start in 2014 to meet the 2020 deadline. The project will go out to international tender and it will be the first time foreign companies have had a chance to enter the Vietnamese market.

It is expected that a lot of bidders will be attracted, particularly Japanese, Russian, South Korean, American and French consortia. Further details on the bidding procedure are expected in the early part of this year from Hanoi.